COVID-19 Will Not Change a Thing
Grab your toilet roll, tell your relatives you love them (via video chat) and prepare for a deadly virus to sweep through the world! It may sound like a dark apocalyptic comedy but through most of early 2020 a new virus has steam rollered its way across the globe. At the time of writing there is no cure and no vaccine. Governments are trying to stop the spread of the virus by locking down populations. Many people stuck at home (mostly those without kids) have time to learn new skills and re-evaluate what is important in their lives, expecting that everything will be different in the future. I predict, however, that by the time this pandemic is over the state of the world is likely to be similar to the tail end of 2019.
Of course there is a devastating immediate impact on people’s lives. Friends, family and co-workers are dying from an incurable disease. Some people are working remotely, many who can’t have lost their livelihoods, and those who are still able — or required — to go out to work risk contracting a fatal illness. So let me clarify the specific argument I’m making. Let’s consider the generation that will come of age in about 10–15 years. All lockdowns will have ended; perhaps there will be an effective vaccine and they may not even remember the pandemic. At that point will this generation’s lifestyle and life choices be fundamentally different? I think not.
First, let us consider the actual problem. There is a new virus known as SARS-CoV-2. The “2” is relevant, the previous incarnation of this virus was SARS-CoV which caused the “SARS” outbreak in 2002–2003. This new virus causes a new disease — COVID-19. The data is only just coming together but it seems that whilst COVID-19 is more fatal than your standard flu, it is far less so than its predecessor — SARS¹. The difference with this virus is that it appears to be transmitted far more easily than SARS² so it has spread quickly. According to the WHO it fortunately seems to spread more slowly than the flu³. As such, I expect that we will soon either have general global immunity to the virus (as most people have for most strains of flu), or we will have a vaccine that can be administered at birth (as we have for polio) or annually (as we have for flu). Thus, the way we don’t fret about catching the flu every time someone in the supermarket leans too close to pick up a cucumber, we won’t have a lasting change to our behaviour because we’re worried about coronavirus. Day-to-day life will most likely go back to normal.
What about people’s livelihoods once we’re over this pandemic? Shops, restaurants, stadia and theatres will eventually re-open in some form. People will start to go on holiday again. The impact to the economy has often been compared with the Great Depression. The current data⁴ does show that the immediate impact on GDP has been quicker than most other economic crises but the impact shouldn’t be nearly as deep set as the Great Depression and so the recovery could be quicker. This slowdown has been artificially created by government shutdowns; when those are lifted the recovery can start immediately. The average economic recovery after a slowdown caused by an external “non-economic” factor can often be pretty quick after the external factor is removed — many major European economies were back to pre-war levels in 4–5 years⁵. Given I expect the spread of the virus to stop being an issue, I can’t think of any large industry that will shutdown permanently (unlike if the crisis was that the world ran out of crude oil overnight, then there would no longer be an airline industry to speak of). But what about working culture?
There has generally been an upward trend in self employment over the last decade⁶, but more job creation has been by companies employing people. I don’t expect this will change much. As people have been in lockdown they may have retrained or developed a new skill that they can turn into a side hustle but in the longer term it’s likely most job creation will continue to be by companies. Technology has meant that a lot of office based work can feasibly be completed remotely- the benefits of this are well documented⁷. But in some cases employers still conflate presenteeism with commitment and hard work, meaning the status quo of working in the office is maintained. Whilst the current crisis may force companies to allow very flexible working practises for now, when the pandemic is over old behaviours and expectations may well come back.
So, day-to-day life, the economy and work culture are likely to revert to their old selves. But we’re hearing that so many people who are in lockdown finally appreciate taking time to just switch off and be in nature. In the past it was quite common for people to value taking a quiet walk outdoors or having a long conversation with en elderly relative but almost every generation in history has felt that the pace of “modern life” is becoming too fast⁸. The rapid explosion of technology over the last few decades has meant we’re “always on” and value nature less. Indeed there has been a resurgence in people discussing mindfulness and practising yoga but these are not new practises that have come out of this pandemic. It is possible that people will take up these practises and adopt these mindsets in large numbers for now — but what will happen after the crisis is over and work and social lives pick up again? People knew the value of nature, community and inner balance in the past, but over generations these values have been lost. Why would we not lose them again if life picks up speed as always and we aren’t consciously slowing it down?
To demonstrate this idea of reverting to old habits despite developing better ones during a crisis let us consider food wastage. Any rational person would agree that it is a bad thing to systemically waste food. In the UK over a hundred years ago this was identified as a problem. Over each of the world wars rationing was introduced and for the second world war persisted until the 1950s. Some of those who lived through it tell us how they developed habits of not wasting — yet we find that those personal habits didn’t stick with many. By 1980 (when children who grew up with rationing would be running households) a study showed significant levels of food waste⁹. Over the last 20 years new initiatives to reduce food waste have not come from people who went through a crisis, but rather from those who have considered the consequences of food wastage and want to avoid a food supply crisis in the future[10].
By the time this pandemic is truly over, if we want to avoid going back to the state of the world at the end of 2019 then every person needs to make a concerted effort to look forward, be aware of the longer term consequences of their actions and live their best life based on what they have learnt over this period. So no, I don’t think COVID-19 is going to change the world long-term… but you just might.
References
[1] Rajgor, Dimple D., et al. “The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases (2020).
[2] Healthline. 2020. Coronavirus Vs. SARS: How Do They Differ?. [online] https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-vs-sars [Accessed 16 May 2020].
[3] Who.int. 2020. Q&A: Influenza And COVID-19 — Similarities And Differences. [online] https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza [Accessed 16 May 2020].
[4] Zumbrun, J., 2020. Coronavirus Slump Is Worst Since Great Depression. Will It Be As Painful?. [online] WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-slump-is-worst-since-great-depression-will-it-be-as-painful-11589115601 [Accessed 23 May 2020].
[5] The Economist. 2020. Economies Can Rebound Quickly From Massive GDP Slumps — But Not Always. [online] https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/03/19/economies-can-rebound-quickly-from-massive-gdp-slumps-but-not-always [Accessed 23 May 2020].
[6] Ons.gov.uk. 2020. Trends In Self-Employment In The UK — Office For National Statistics. [online] https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/trendsinselfemploymentintheuk/2018-02-07 [Accessed 16 May 2020].
[7] Probrand.co.uk. 2020. 10 Statistics About Remote Working That Every Manager Needs To Know | Probrand. [online] https://www.probrand.co.uk/blog/pb/march-2020/10-mind-blowing-stats-about-remote-working [Accessed 22 May 2020].
[8] Munroe, R., 2020. The Pace Of Modern Life. [online] xkcd. https://xkcd.com/1227/ [Accessed 16 May 2020].
[9] Wenlock, R. W., et al. “Household food wastage in Britain.” British Journal of Nutrition 43.1 (1980): 53–70.
[10] En.wikipedia.org. 2020. Food Waste In The United Kingdom. [online] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_waste_in_the_United_Kingdom#History [Accessed 16 May 2020].
